COMPOSITE RISK SCORE
43
MODERATE
VAL:0/25 · FIN:13/25 · GRO:15/25 · TECH:15/25
📈 P/E RATIO
244.4x
Trailing
📖 P/B RATIO
71.7x
Price to Book
🏛 MARKET CAP
$60.7B
Large Cap
📊 ROE
29.3%
Return on Equity
Overview
Technical
Financials
Analysis
Verdict
🏢 Company Analysis · Lumentum Holdings Inc.
💼 BUSINESS MODEL
Lumentum Holdings Inc.. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.. It operates through two segments, Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech.. The Cloud & Networking segment offers optical and photonic chips, components, modules, and subsystems supplied to cloud data center operators, AI/ML infrastructure providers, and network equipment manufacturer customers that are building cloud data centers and network infrastructures.. Operates in Communication Equipment within the Technology sector. Workforce of 10,562 employees.
🏰 MOAT & COMPETITION
Large-cap ($61B) — established player with meaningful market presence. ROE of 29.3% indicates strong competitive advantage and efficient capital deployment. Profit margin of 12.0% — moderate pricing power.
🚀 CATALYSTS
Investors Worry About Mounting Debt — 7 S&P 500 Companies Owe Most (Investor's Business Daily) Revenue growing at 66% — strong top-line momentum.
⚖️ ASYMMETRY CHECK
Analyst target range: $455 — $1,225 (mean $832, 23 analysts). Unfavorable asymmetry — limited upside +44% vs downside -46% (0.9x).P/E of 244.4x — premium valuation , growth must sustain to avoid de-rating risk.
🔭 FUTURE OUTLOOK
Analyst consensus: Buy (23 analysts).
P/E at 244x
P/B at 71.7x
Analyst target: $832.04 (-2.2%)
1Y return: +1318.3%
ROE: 29.3%
Profit margin: 12.0%
Revenue growth: 65.5%
Debt/Equity: 392%
Revenue growth: 65.5%
Earnings growth: 0.0%
Beta: 1.39
Sector: Technology
RSI, MACD, MA crossovers
200 DMA & 50 EMA position
Volume trend analysis
Price momentum signals
📈 Price Movement
1D 1W 1M
6M 1Y 3Y 5Y
🕯 Candlestick Chart
1D 1W 1M
6M 1Y 3Y 5Y
🎯 Price Prediction · Analyst Target Cone
📉 Valuation Trends (at current CMP)
P/E P/B MCap/Sales EPS
2643.2
2049.8
1456.4
863.1
269.7
2022
2025
2022: 317.3 2025: 2298.4 2298.4
72.9
61.6
50.2
38.9
27.5
2022
2023
2024
2025
2022: 32.4 2023: 44.8 2024: 63.4 2025: 53.5 53.5
51.4
45.8
40.3
34.7
29.2
2022
2023
2024
2025
2022: 35.5 2023: 34.4 2024: 44.7 2025: 36.9 36.9
3.1
2.4
1.7
1.0
0.3
2022
2025
2022: 2.7 2025: 0.4 0.4
💎 Valuation & Financial Metrics
P/E RATIO
244.4x
Trailing twelve months
P/B RATIO
71.7x
Price to Book value
PROFIT MARGIN
12.0%
Net profit margin
OPM
10.7%
Operating profit margin
ANALYST TARGET
$832.04
Range: $455.00 - $1,225.00
PEG RATIO
0.63
Price/Earnings to Growth
EV/EBITDA
219.2x
Enterprise value ratio
CURRENT RATIO
0.61
Liquidity measure
DIVIDEND YIELD
N/A
Annual yield
GROSS MARGIN
37.1%
Gross profit margin
SECTOR BENCHMARKS — COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT
P/E (fair) 35.0x (sector mid)
P/B (fair) 8.0x (sector mid)
ROE (good) 25% (sector target)
OPM (good) 25% (sector target)
D/E comfort <20 (sector)
📋 Quarterly Performance Trend
Quarter Revenue QoQ % Net Profit QoQ % Op. Cash Flow EBITDA Margin
Q4 '24
$402.2M —
$-60.9M —
$24.3M
7.0%
Q1 '25
$425.2M +5.7%
$-44.1M +27.6%
$-1.6M
6.3%
Q2 '25
$480.7M +13.1%
$213.3M +583.7%
$64.0M
11.5%
Q3 '25
$533.8M +11.0%
$4.2M -98.0%
$57.9M
13.7%
Q4 '25
$665.5M +24.7%
$78.2M +1761.9%
$126.7M
25.2%
📊 Year-on-Year Trend
FY Revenue YoY % Net Profit YoY % Op. Cash Flow YoY %
2021
N/A —
N/A —
N/A —
2022
$1.7B —
$198.9M —
$459.3M —
2023
$1.8B +3.2%
$-131.6M -166.2%
$179.8M -60.9%
2024
$1.4B -23.1%
$-546.5M -315.3%
$24.7M -86.3%
2025
$1.6B +21.0%
$25.9M +104.7%
$126.3M +411.3%
📈 Revenue vs Earnings
Quarterly
Annual
💰 How Lumentum Holdings Inc. Makes Its Money
Quarterly
Annual
Revenue
$666M
Cost of Revenue
$425M
Gross Profit
$240M
R&D
$80M
SG&A
$96M
Operating Inc.
$64M
Tax
$18M
Interest
$6M
Other
$27M
Net Income
$78M
(11.8% margin)
Dec 2025 · All values in $ Millions
Revenue
$534M
Cost of Revenue
$352M
Gross Profit
$182M
R&D
$81M
SG&A
$85M
Operating Inc.
$15M
Interest
$6M
Other
$13M
Net Income
$4M
(0.8% margin)
Sep 2025 · All values in $ Millions
Revenue
$481M
Cost of Revenue
$321M
Gross Profit
$160M
R&D
$80M
SG&A
$84M
Operating Inc.
-$3M
Interest
$5M
Other
$11M
Net Income
$213M
(44.4% margin)
Jun 2025 · All values in $ Millions
Revenue
$425M
Cost of Revenue
$303M
Gross Profit
$122M
R&D
$76M
SG&A
$112M
Operating Inc.
-$65M
Tax
$5M
Interest
$6M
Other
$24M
Net Income
-$44M
(-10.4% margin)
Mar 2025 · All values in $ Millions
Revenue
$1.6B
Cost of Revenue
$1.2B
Gross Profit
$460M
R&D
$304M
SG&A
$348M
Operating Inc.
-$192M
Interest
$22M
Net Income
$26M
(1.6% margin)
Jun 2025 · All values in $ Millions
Revenue
$1.4B
Cost of Revenue
$1.1B
Gross Profit
$252M
R&D
$302M
SG&A
$311M
Operating Inc.
-$361M
Tax
$141M
Interest
$34M
Other
$72M
Net Income
-$546M
(-40.2% margin)
Jun 2024 · All values in $ Millions
Revenue
$1.8B
Cost of Revenue
$1.2B
Gross Profit
$569M
R&D
$308M
SG&A
$349M
Operating Inc.
-$88M
Tax
$29M
Interest
$36M
Other
$20M
Net Income
-$132M
(-7.4% margin)
Jun 2023 · All values in $ Millions
Revenue
$1.7B
Cost of Revenue
$924M
Gross Profit
$789M
R&D
$221M
SG&A
$266M
Operating Inc.
$302M
Tax
$36M
Interest
$80M
Net Income
$199M
(11.6% margin)
Jun 2022 · All values in $ Millions
Dec 2025
Sep 2025
Jun 2025
Mar 2025
🏦 Snapshot of Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s Balance Sheet
Quarterly
Annual
Total Assets
$4.8B
Cash & Equiv.: $658M (13.7%)
Receivables: $377M (7.8%)
Inventory: $570M (11.9%)
Other Current: $678M (14.1%)
PP&E: $843M (17.5%)
Goodwill: $1.1B (22.1%)
Other Intangibles: $397M (8.3%)
Other Non-Curr.: $221M (4.6%)
Liab. + Equity
$4.8B
Current Liab.: $3.8B (78.4%)
Long-Term Debt: $47M (1.0%)
Other Liab.: $144M (3.0%)
Equity: $847M (17.6%)
As of Dec 2025 · All values in $ Millions
Total Assets
$4.6B
Cash & Equiv.: $773M (16.8%)
Receivables: $307M (6.7%)
Inventory: $532M (11.5%)
Other Current: $474M (10.3%)
PP&E: $825M (17.9%)
Goodwill: $1.1B (23.0%)
Other Intangibles: $431M (9.3%)
Other Non-Curr.: $211M (4.6%)
Liab. + Equity
$4.6B
Current Liab.: $1.5B (33.1%)
Long-Term Debt: $2.2B (46.9%)
Other Liab.: $142M (3.1%)
Equity: $781M (16.9%)
As of Sep 2025 · All values in $ Millions
Total Assets
$4.2B
Cash & Equiv.: $521M (12.3%)
Receivables: $250M (5.9%)
Inventory: $470M (11.1%)
Other Current: $476M (11.3%)
PP&E: $754M (17.9%)
Goodwill: $1.1B (25.1%)
Other Intangibles: $465M (11.0%)
Other Non-Curr.: $221M (5.2%)
Liab. + Equity
$4.2B
Current Liab.: $393M (9.3%)
Long-Term Debt: $2.6B (60.7%)
Other Liab.: $129M (3.0%)
Equity: $1.1B (26.9%)
As of Jun 2025 · All values in $ Millions
Total Assets
$4.0B
Cash & Equiv.: $516M (13.0%)
Receivables: $256M (6.4%)
Inventory: $423M (10.6%)
Other Current: $472M (11.9%)
PP&E: $726M (18.3%)
Goodwill: $1.1B (26.7%)
Other Intangibles: $500M (12.6%)
Liab. + Equity
$4.0B
Current Liab.: $353M (8.9%)
Long-Term Debt: $2.6B (64.5%)
Other Liab.: $180M (4.5%)
Equity: $880M (22.1%)
As of Mar 2025 · All values in $ Millions
Total Assets
$4.2B
Cash & Equiv.: $521M (12.3%)
Receivables: $250M (5.9%)
Inventory: $470M (11.1%)
Other Current: $476M (11.3%)
PP&E: $754M (17.9%)
Goodwill: $1.1B (25.1%)
Other Intangibles: $465M (11.0%)
Other Non-Curr.: $221M (5.2%)
Liab. + Equity
$4.2B
Current Liab.: $393M (9.3%)
Long-Term Debt: $2.6B (60.7%)
Other Liab.: $129M (3.0%)
Equity: $1.1B (26.9%)
As of Jun 2025 · All values in $ Millions
Total Assets
$3.9B
Cash & Equiv.: $437M (11.1%)
Receivables: $195M (5.0%)
Inventory: $398M (10.1%)
Other Current: $560M (14.3%)
PP&E: $645M (16.4%)
Goodwill: $1.1B (26.9%)
Other Intangibles: $618M (15.7%)
Liab. + Equity
$3.9B
Current Liab.: $269M (6.8%)
Long-Term Debt: $2.5B (63.7%)
Other Liab.: $202M (5.1%)
Equity: $957M (24.3%)
As of Jun 2024 · All values in $ Millions
Total Assets
$4.6B
Cash & Equiv.: $859M (18.5%)
Receivables: $246M (5.3%)
Inventory: $409M (8.8%)
Other Current: $1.3B (27.3%)
PP&E: $567M (12.2%)
Goodwill: $695M (15.0%)
Other Intangibles: $459M (9.9%)
Other Non-Curr.: $133M (2.9%)
Liab. + Equity
$4.6B
Current Liab.: $634M (13.7%)
Long-Term Debt: $2.5B (54.0%)
Other Liab.: $142M (3.1%)
Equity: $1.4B (29.3%)
As of Jun 2023 · All values in $ Millions
Total Assets
$4.2B
Cash & Equiv.: $1.3B (31.0%)
Receivables: $262M (6.3%)
Inventory: $250M (6.0%)
Other Current: $1.3B (32.1%)
PP&E: $434M (10.4%)
Goodwill: $369M (8.9%)
Other Intangibles: $156M (3.7%)
Liab. + Equity
$4.2B
Current Liab.: $716M (17.2%)
Long-Term Debt: $1.5B (35.2%)
Other Liab.: $105M (2.5%)
Equity: $1.9B (45.0%)
As of Jun 2022 · All values in $ Millions
Dec 2025
Sep 2025
Jun 2025
Mar 2025
💸 Looking into Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s Cash Flow
Quarterly
Annual
Operating CF
$127M
Capital Exp.
$84M
Free Cash Flow
$43M
Debt Repaid
$2M
Retained / Other
$41M
FY2025 · All values in $ Millions
Operating CF
$58M
Capital Exp.
$76M
FY2025 · All values in $ Millions
Operating CF
$64M
Capital Exp.
$54M
Free Cash Flow
$10M
Debt Repaid
$3M
Retained / Other
$7M
FY2025 · All values in $ Millions
Operating CF
$126M
Capital Exp.
$231M
FY2025 · All values in $ Millions
Operating CF
$25M
Capital Exp.
$137M
FY2024 · All values in $ Millions
Operating CF
$180M
Capital Exp.
$128M
Free Cash Flow
$51M
Buybacks
$176M
Debt Repaid
$139M
FY2023 · All values in $ Millions
Operating CF
$459M
Capital Exp.
$91M
Free Cash Flow
$368M
Buybacks
$544M
FY2022 · All values in $ Millions
FY2025
FY2025
FY2025
🎯 EPS: Estimate vs Actual
Estimates
Quarterly
Annual
📅 Quarterly Results
Item Dec '25 Sep '25 Jun '25 Mar '25 Dec '24 Total Revenue $665.5M $533.8M $480.7M $425.2M $402.2M Cost of Revenue $425.4M $352.3M $320.8M $302.7M $302.6M Gross Profit $240.1M $181.5M $159.9M $122.5M $99.6M Operating Expense $176.2M $166.5M $163.1M $187.9M $150.5M Operating Income $63.9M $15.0M $-3.2M $-65.4M $-50.9M Interest Expense $6.3M $5.7M $5.4M $5.7M $5.6M Pretax Income $96.5M $5.2M $-11.4M $-39.2M $-42.3M Tax Provision $18.3M $1.0M $-224.7M $4.9M $18.6M Net Income $78.2M $4.2M $213.3M $-44.1M $-60.9M EBITDA $167.4M $73.1M $55.1M $26.6M $28.2M EPS (Basic) $1.10 $0.06 $3.06 $-0.64 $-0.88 EPS (Diluted) $0.89 $0.05 $2.96 $-0.64 $-0.88 Shares Outstanding 87.8M 78.3M 72.0M 69.3M 68.9M
📊 Profit & Loss Statement
Item Jun '25 Jun '24 Jun '23 Jun '22 Jun '21 Total Revenue $1.65B $1.36B $1.77B $1.71B — Cost of Revenue $1.19B $1.11B $1.20B $924.0M — Gross Profit $459.9M $251.5M $569.0M $788.6M — Operating Expense $652.1M $612.9M $656.6M $486.4M — Operating Income $-192.2M $-361.4M $-87.6M $302.2M — Interest Expense $22.2M $33.8M $35.5M $80.2M — Pretax Income $-172.1M $-405.7M $-102.4M $235.1M — Tax Provision $-198.0M $140.8M $29.2M $36.2M — Net Income $25.9M $-546.5M $-131.6M $198.9M — EBITDA $106.8M $-81.6M $188.7M $482.4M — EPS (Basic) $0.38 $-8.12 $-1.93 $2.79 — EPS (Diluted) $0.37 $-8.12 $-1.93 $2.68 — Shares Outstanding 69.6M 67.3M 68.3M 74.2M —
🏦 Balance Sheet
Item Jun '25 Jun '24 Jun '23 Jun '22 Jun '21 Total Assets $4.22B $3.93B $4.63B $4.16B — Current Assets $1.72B $1.59B $2.78B $3.14B — Cash & Equivalents $520.7M $436.7M $859.0M $1.29B — Accounts Receivable $250.0M $194.7M $246.1M $262.0M — Inventory $470.1M $398.4M $408.6M $250.1M — Non-Current Assets $2.50B $2.34B $1.85B $1.02B — Property Plant & Equip $754.3M $645.3M $566.8M $434.1M — Goodwill $1.06B $1.06B $695.1M $368.9M — Intangible Assets $1.53B $1.67B $1.15B $524.6M — Total Liabilities $3.08B $2.97B $3.28B $2.29B — Current Liabilities $392.8M $269.3M $633.8M $716.5M — Accounts Payable $225.2M $126.3M $169.4M $156.7M — Short-Term Debt $10.6M — $311.6M $409.9M $390.7M Long-Term Debt $2.56B $2.50B $2.50B $1.47B — Total Equity $1.13B $957.3M $1.36B $1.88B — Retained Earnings $-861.2M $-887.1M $-340.6M $-129.1M — Book Value/Share -391.3M -716.0M 201.5M 1.35B —
💰 Cash Flow Statement
Item Jun '25 Jun '24 Jun '23 Jun '22 Jun '21 Operating Cash Flow $126.3M $24.7M $179.8M $459.3M — Depreciation & Amort. $256.7M $290.3M $255.6M $167.1M — Change in Working Cap $-314.5M $138.8M $-136.6M $-90.6M — Capital Expenditure $-231.0M $-137.0M $-128.5M $-91.2M — Free Cash Flow $-104.7M $-112.3M $51.3M $368.1M — Investing Cash Flow $-84.1M $-114.3M $-874.0M $-226.3M — Acquisitions $0 $-700.9M $-861.6M $-30.0M — Financing Cash Flow $41.8M $-332.7M $263.0M $282.9M — Debt Issued $76.5M $0 $599.4M $854.1M — Debt Repaid $-8.1M $-323.1M $-138.7M $-1.8M — Dividends Paid — — — — $0 Share Buyback $0 $0 $-175.6M $-543.9M — Net Change in Cash $84.0M $-422.3M $-431.2M $515.9M —
📈 Key Financial Ratios
Ratio FY2025 FY2024 FY2023 FY2022 FY2021 Gross Margin % 28.0% 18.5% 32.2% 46.0% — Operating Margin % -11.7% -26.6% -5.0% 17.6% — Net Margin % 1.6% -40.2% -7.4% 11.6% — EBITDA Margin % 6.5% -6.0% 10.7% 28.2% — ROE % 2.3% -57.1% -9.7% 10.6% — ROA % 0.6% -13.9% -2.8% 4.8% — Debt/Equity % 229.9% 267.4% 212.0% 103.3% — Current Ratio 4.37 5.90 4.38 4.38 — FCF Margin % -6.4% -8.3% 2.9% 21.5% — Asset Turnover 0.39 0.35 0.38 0.41 —
🚀 Compounded Growth Rates
Revenue
1-Year +21.0% 3-Year CAGR -3.5%
🏭 Industry Peers — Communication Equipment
Ticker Company Price P/E P/B MCap ROE Margin Rev Growth AAPL Apple Inc. $269.00 34.1 44.8 $3,949.3B 152.0% 27.0% 15.7% MSFT Microsoft Corporation $424.17 26.6 8.1 $3,152.6B 34.4% 39.0% 16.7% GOOGL Alphabet Inc. $350.61 32.4 10.2 $4,241.4B 35.7% 32.8% 18.0% META Meta Platforms, Inc. $672.03 28.6 7.8 $1,705.9B 30.2% 30.1% 23.8% NVDA NVIDIA Corporation $210.50 43.0 32.5 $5,116.9B 101.5% 55.6% 73.2% ORCL Oracle Corporation $162.82 29.2 14.0 $468.3B 57.6% 25.3% 21.7% CRM Salesforce, Inc. $180.23 23.1 2.8 $147.4B 12.4% 18.0% 12.1% ADBE Adobe Inc. $241.50 14.1 8.6 $97.6B 58.8% 29.5% 12.0%
Peers selected from Technology sector · Data from Yahoo Finance
🏛 Shareholding Pattern
TOP HOLDERS
Holder Type Shares % Held FMR, LLC Inst 9,330,198 13.07% Blackrock Inc. Inst 8,344,266 11.69% Vanguard Group Inc Inst 7,388,774 10.35% Capital World Investors Inst 3,618,324 5.07% Invesco Ltd. Inst 2,300,334 3.22% SmallCap World Fund Inc MF 3,017,220 4.23% iShares Trust-iShares Core S&P Mid- MF 2,290,297 3.21% VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS-Vanguard Total MF 2,229,360 3.12%
🟢 CATALYSTS
🏆 Revenue Growth 66%: Above sector norm of 30% — strong top-line momentum.
💹 High ROE (29.3%): Above sector norm of 25% — efficient capital use.
🔀 Sector Opportunity: Technology / Communication Equipment — positioned in growth sector.
🔴 RISKS
📜 High P/E (244.4x): Well above sector expensive threshold of 60x — leaves little room for error.
💰 High P/B (71.7x): Well above sector expensive threshold of 15x.
🔓 High Debt/Equity (392%): Above sector threshold of 60% — leverage risk.
⚔ High Beta (1.39): More volatile than market — higher swing risk.
️ Below Analyst Target: CMP above mean target — limited upside consensus.
🕸 Factor Analysis · Radar
Momentum 7/10: 1M +29.9%, 6M +296.9%, RSI 54, MACD bearish, Above 200DMA Sentiment 5/10: Analyst upside -2.2%, Rec: buy Value 2/10: P/E 244.4, P/B 71.7, PEG 0.63, EV/EBITDA 219.2 Quality 5/10: ROE 29.3%, Margin 12.0%, D/E 392, CR 0.61 Low Volatility 1/10: Beta 1.39, Ann. vol 81% Momentum
7
Sentiment
5
Value
2
Quality
5
Low Vol
1
Momentum 7/10 1M +29.9%, 6M +296.9%, RSI 54, MACD bearish, Above 200DMA
Sentiment 5/10 Analyst upside -2.2%, Rec: buy
Value 2/10 P/E 244.4, P/B 71.7, PEG 0.63, EV/EBITDA 219.2
Quality 5/10 ROE 29.3%, Margin 12.0%, D/E 392, CR 0.61
Low Volatility 1/10 Beta 1.39, Ann. vol 81%
🎯 Decision Matrix — Game Theory
Action If Stock Rises If Stock Falls
BUY Benefit from potential re-rating OPM of 11% provides margin buffer HOLD Retain existing position; wait for better entry Miss further upside if momentum continues; 1M return of +29.9% shows momentum SELL Lock in +1318.3% 1Y return Avoid further drawdown
REASONS TO BUY
ROE of 29.3% above sector norm of 25%
Revenue growing at 65.5% YoY (sector norm: 12%)
REASONS TO SELL / AVOID
P/E of 244.4x exceeds sector expensive threshold of 60x
1Y return of +1318.3% — profit booking opportunity
Trading above analyst target — consensus sees -2.2% downside
Debt/Equity at 392% exceeds sector comfort zone
Lumentum Holdings Inc. trades at $850.41 with a composite risk score of 43/100.
The stock scores 0/25 on valuation, 13/25 on financial health, 15/25 on growth, and 15/25 on technicals.
The company is currently profitable with strong return on equity.
Bottom Line: Neutral for Technology — wait for better entry or catalyst. The current recommendation is HOLD .
PROFITABLE
HIGH ROE
STRONG GROWTH
EXPENSIVE
VOLATILE
HIGH DEBT